Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM-Chicago)
The month's last PMI: historically tightly linked to next month's ISM — the weathervane for the coming month's manufacturing narrative.
Monthly (9:45 AM ET, last business day)
What it is
The Chicago PMI, published by ISM-Chicago (formerly the Chicago purchasing managers' association) on the last business day of each month, is a diffusion survey of purchasing managers across the Chicago district (a heavy-industry belt) — 50 boom-bust line, with new orders, production, backlog, employment, prices paid and supplier-delivery components. Its special standing comes from timing: as the month's final PMI-type print, it has historically tracked the next month's ISM Manufacturing closely — the market reads it as ISM's one-business-day-ahead weathervane.
Release schedule
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| • | Frequency: monthly (current month) |
| • | Release: last business day of the month at 09:45 ET (22:45/23:45 Beijing time, DST-dependent) |
| • | Contents: composite diffusion (50 line) + new orders/production/backlog/employment/prices paid/deliveries |
| • | District trait: heavy-industry heavy — more cycle-sensitive than the national average |
| • | Timing role: the month's last PMI — about a day before ISM (1st business day, 10:00 ET) |
Why it matters
The value is the final window: it is the month's last manufacturing survey — the closing read on the month — and historically correlates well with next month's ISM ("Chicago hot, ISM hot"). Trading uses: revising ISM expectations before month-end (positioning for ISM day); the month's final manufacturing confirmation (after Empire/Philly/S&P Global); and heavy-industry sensitivity — the district's structural cyclicality amplifies turning-point signals. The weakness: small single-district samples and volatility — a signal flare, not a benchmark.
Impact across assets
Typical impacts (using a big miss):
| Asset | Typical impact |
|---|---|
| US equities | A big miss → "next month's ISM softer" expectations → cyclicals pressured; the "slowdown → cuts" read partially offsets |
| US Dollar Index | A miss → mildly softer — the month-end correction point for growth perception |
| Gold | Weak → short-term bid on easing expectations; clearer with prices-paid easing |
| Crypto | Follows liquidity narrative — limited elasticity |
| Treasuries | Weak → yields slightly lower; the ISM-expectation revision feeds growth expectations |
How to read it
The standard read:
| Dimension | How to read it |
|---|---|
| The 50 line | Above 50 expanding, below contracting; distance from 50 is the "temperature" — sub-40 territory has historically coincided with recession zones |
| Mapping to next month's ISM | High historical correlation but not mechanical — revise expectations with direction and magnitude gaps, never translate the level |
| New orders | The demand lead — divergence between new orders and the composite often leads the composite's inflection |
| The intra-month combo | Agreement with Empire/Philly/S&P Global confirms the month's direction; divergence = let the latest, most cycle-sensitive print be the correction |
The advanced frame: Chicago's correct role is "closing the loop and previewing next month" — it ends the month's manufacturing survey sequence and provides the directional prior for next month's ISM. Discipline: prioritize consistency with the month's other district surveys; use directional correction (not level translation) for the ISM mapping; and remember the heavy-industry skew makes it most accurate in industrial downturns/recoveries, least reliable in services-led regimes.
Limitations & common mistakes
- Treating Chicago as ISM: systematic level gaps exist (Chicago often deviates from the national print) — correct direction, do not translate points.
- Over-reading one district: a concentrated heavy-industry sample — divergence from national readings is more frequent in services-led periods.
- Ignoring the intra-month combo: it is the closing confirmation, not the only truth — check components before settling the narrative when it diverges from Empire/Philly/S&P Global.
- The month-end positioning effect: the month's last print in thin liquidity — moves amplify (holidays especially).
- Missing the heavy-industry skew: high industrial weight makes it an amplifier of the industrial cycle — using it for the services economy distorts.
Related macro data
How it links to other macro data:
- With ISM Manufacturing: the weathervane-official pair — Chicago (month-end) into ISM (1st business day), direction repricing ISM-day positioning. pmi
- With regional Fed surveys: Empire/Philly/Dallas plus Chicago = the month's four manufacturing pulses — consistency sets confidence. regional-fed
- With S&P Global PMI: the S&P flash (late month) and Chicago nearly coincide — in divergence, Chicago carries the heavy-industry view. sp-global-pmi
Symbols most sensitive to Chicago PMI
Symbol pages that list this data as a factor to watch:
FAQ
Q When is the Chicago PMI released?
The last business day of the month at 09:45 ET (22:45/23:45 Beijing depending on DST) — the month's final PMI-type print, about a day before ISM.
Q Why is it called ISM's weathervane?
Historically it correlates well with next month's ISM Manufacturing (direction usually agrees) — as the month's last manufacturing survey, it gives ISM a one-day directional prior. Correlation is not mechanical — correct direction, never translate levels.
Q Why does it often diverge from national readings?
District structure: Chicago covers the heavy-industry belt with high industrial sensitivity, while the national print includes more services and light industry — divergence is more frequent in services-led periods. It is an industrial-cycle amplifier, not a national average.
Q What does a sub-40 reading mean?
Deep contraction — historically, Chicago PMI prints in the sub-40 zone (especially consecutively) raise the odds of coinciding with recession zones. Complete the conclusion with new orders and employment moving the same way.
Q How do I use it in trading?
Three uses: revise next month's ISM expectations before month-end (positioning); close the loop on the month's manufacturing surveys; and the sensitive heavy-industry signal (most accurate in industrial downturns/recoveries). Mind the amplified moves in thin month-end liquidity.
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