Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys (Empire State / Philly Fed / Richmond / Dallas)
The month's earliest manufacturing pulses: New York leads off, Philadelphia relays — both sides of zero are a directional vote.
Monthly per district (Empire ~15th 8:30 AM, Philly 3rd Thu 10 AM ET)
What it is
Several of the 12 regional Fed banks survey manufacturers in their districts monthly, producing diffusion indexes — the market tracks the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey (~15th, 08:30 ET, the month's earliest), the Philadelphia Fed's (3rd Thursday, 10:00), plus Richmond and Dallas. The frame is a zero-bound diffusion index (positive = more firms expanding) with common components: new orders, employment, prices paid (the earliest monthly micro read on pricing pressure) and 6-month expectations. They are separate surveys from ISM but highly correlated in direction — the market uses them to "preview" ISM.
Release schedule
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| • | Frequency: each district monthly, staggered |
| • | Release: Empire State ~15th at 08:30 (earliest of the month); Philadelphia 3rd Thursday at 10:00; Richmond/Dallas mid-to-late month |
| • | Contents: composite diffusion (zero line) + new orders + employment + prices paid + 6-month expectations |
| • | Frame: district manufacturer surveys — independent of ISM; direction-correlated, levels not interchangeable |
| • | The combo rule: several districts agreeing = a strong signal; one district moving = probably noise |
Why it matters
The value is timing and granularity: Empire State is the month's first hard manufacturing survey — the "trailer" for ISM (early next month), with big surprises repricing ISM expectations; prices-paid is the month's earliest business-level pricing-pressure read (earlier than PPI, far earlier than CPI); district splits give geographic structure (Rust Belt versus Sun Belt versus energy states). The weaknesses: small single-district samples (roughly 100–200 firms) and large monthly noise — "read the combo" is the discipline.
Impact across assets
Typical impacts (using a big Empire State miss):
| Asset | Typical impact |
|---|---|
| US equities | A big miss → manufacturing-contraction worry → cyclicals pressured; neutralized under the "slowdown → cuts" read — the inflation component decides |
| US Dollar Index | A miss → mildly softer; the "ISM preview" role moves same-day rate expectations |
| Gold | Weak with easing prices-paid → benefits on easing expectations; weak with hot prices-paid → the stagflation read (more complicated) |
| Crypto | Follows macro liquidity narrative — limited elasticity |
| Treasuries | Weak → yields slightly lower; the prices-paid component is watched for its inflation-expectation marginal read |
How to read it
The standard read:
| Dimension | How to read it |
|---|---|
| The zero line and direction | Positive = more firms expanding; consecutive monthly slides into negative territory confirm contraction — a single crossing of zero does not count |
| New orders | The demand lead: new orders lead the composite — multi-district agreement on new orders is the earliest survey evidence of a manufacturing turn |
| Prices paid | The earliest monthly business-level pricing pressure: multi-district highs = real cost-push; easing = inflation pressure relieving |
| Cross-district consistency | Two or three districts agreeing = credible; a single small-district outlier = noise — consistency is the discipline |
The advanced frame: use Empire State plus Philadelphia as "ISM's two-week preview" and prices-paid as "PPI's business-side preview" — historically, multi-district prices-paid inflections have led PPI's monthly direction. The sequence: Empire (15th) → Philly (3rd Thursday) → Dallas/Richmond → ISM (1st of next month): four steps progressively calibrating manufacturing and inflation-pressure views.
Limitations & common mistakes
- Over-reading one district: samples of ~100–200 firms swing naturally — extreme single-district reads (especially Dallas/Richmond) are often sample noise.
- Swapping levels with ISM: independent surveys with systematic level gaps — "Empire -10 with ISM 49" can coexist; read each against its own zero/50 line.
- Ignoring prices-paid: most watch only the composite — prices-paid is the unique value (the month's earliest micro inflation read).
- Treating 6-month expectations as a forecast: they measure sentiment about policy more than outcomes — read direction, not level.
- Mixing release times: Empire 08:30, Philadelphia 10:00 — attribute same-day moves correctly (especially Philly Thursdays adjacent to claims).
Related macro data
How it links to other macro data:
- With ISM Manufacturing: the regional surveys are ISM's two-week preview — the Empire+Philly+Dallas combo direction reprices ISM expectations. pmi
- With PPI: multi-district prices-paid is the business-side lead for PPI — its trend leads factory-gate prices. ppi
- With industrial production: survey (direction) versus hard data (volume) — regional surveys weakening while IP holds = transmission in progress. industrial-production
Symbols most sensitive to Regional Fed Surveys
Symbol pages that list this data as a factor to watch:
FAQ
Q Which surveys exist and when do they release?
The tracked four: NY Fed Empire State (~15th, 08:30 ET, the month's earliest), Philadelphia (3rd Thursday, 10:00), Richmond and Dallas (mid-to-late month). Each district monthly, staggered.
Q How do they relate to ISM?
Independent but direction-correlated: districts survey their own manufacturers, ISM is national. The market treats them as ISM previews — Empire first, Philly next — with the combo direction repricing ISM expectations. Levels are not interchangeable.
Q How do I use the zero line?
Positive = more firms reporting improvement (expansion), negative the reverse — semantically like PMI's 50 but distinct: a single crossing of zero is not a trend; consecutive months (or multi-district agreement) are.
Q Why does prices-paid matter?
It is the business-level "pricing pressure" read — the month's earliest micro inflation evidence. Multi-district highs = real cost-push pressure, leading the monthly direction of PPI and CPI. It is the survey set's unique inflation lens.
Q How do I use them in trading?
Three uses: Empire State as the mid-month first manufacturing read (repricing ISM), multi-district prices-paid for inflation marginal calls, and the consistency discipline (two or three districts agreeing to trust). Single-district outliers usually fade within a day or two.
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