Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys (Empire State / Philly Fed / Richmond / Dallas)
The month's earliest manufacturing pulses: New York leads off, Philadelphia relays — both sides of zero are a directional vote.
Monthly per district (Empire ~15th 8:30 AM, Philly 3rd Thu 10 AM ET)
What it is
Several of the 12 regional Fed banks survey manufacturers in their districts monthly, producing diffusion indexes — the market tracks the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey (~15th, 08:30 ET, the month's earliest), the Philadelphia Fed's (3rd Thursday, 10:00), plus Richmond and Dallas. The frame is a zero-bound diffusion index (positive = more firms expanding) with common components: new orders, employment, prices paid (the earliest monthly micro read on pricing pressure) and 6-month expectations. They are separate surveys from ISM but highly correlated in direction — the market uses them to "preview" ISM.
Release schedule
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| • | Frequency: each district monthly, staggered |
| • | Release: Empire State ~15th at 08:30 (earliest of the month); Philadelphia 3rd Thursday at 10:00; Richmond/Dallas mid-to-late month |
| • | Contents: composite diffusion (zero line) + new orders + employment + prices paid + 6-month expectations |
| • | Frame: district manufacturer surveys — independent of ISM; direction-correlated, levels not interchangeable |
| • | The combo rule: several districts agreeing = a strong signal; one district moving = probably noise |
Why it matters
The value is timing and granularity: Empire State is the month's first hard manufacturing survey — the "trailer" for ISM (early next month), with big surprises repricing ISM expectations; prices-paid is the month's earliest business-level pricing-pressure read (earlier than PPI, far earlier than CPI); district splits give geographic structure (Rust Belt versus Sun Belt versus energy states). The weaknesses: small single-district samples (roughly 100–200 firms) and large monthly noise — "read the combo" is the discipline.
Impact across assets
Typical impacts (using a big Empire State miss):
| Asset | Typical impact |
|---|---|
| US equities | A big miss → manufacturing-contraction worry → cyclicals pressured; neutralized under the "slowdown → cuts" read — the inflation component decides |
| US Dollar Index | A miss → mildly softer; the "ISM preview" role moves same-day rate expectations |
| Gold | Weak with easing prices-paid → benefits on easing expectations; weak with hot prices-paid → the stagflation read (more complicated) |
| Crypto | Follows macro liquidity narrative — limited elasticity |
| Treasuries | Weak → yields slightly lower; the prices-paid component is watched for its inflation-expectation marginal read |
How to read it
The standard read:
| Dimension | How to read it |
|---|---|
| The zero line and direction | Positive = more firms expanding; consecutive monthly slides into negative territory confirm contraction — a single crossing of zero does not count |
| New orders | The demand lead: new orders lead the composite — multi-district agreement on new orders is the earliest survey evidence of a manufacturing turn |
| Prices paid | The earliest monthly business-level pricing pressure: multi-district highs = real cost-push; easing = inflation pressure relieving |
| Cross-district consistency | Two or three districts agreeing = credible; a single small-district outlier = noise — consistency is the discipline |
The advanced frame: use Empire State plus Philadelphia as "ISM's two-week preview" and prices-paid as "PPI's business-side preview" — historically, multi-district prices-paid inflections have led PPI's monthly direction. The sequence: Empire (15th) → Philly (3rd Thursday) → Dallas/Richmond → ISM (1st of next month): four steps progressively calibrating manufacturing and inflation-pressure views.
Limitations & common mistakes
- Over-reading one district: samples of ~100–200 firms swing naturally — extreme single-district reads (especially Dallas/Richmond) are often sample noise.
- Swapping levels with ISM: independent surveys with systematic level gaps — "Empire -10 with ISM 49" can coexist; read each against its own zero/50 line.
- Ignoring prices-paid: most watch only the composite — prices-paid is the unique value (the month's earliest micro inflation read).
- Treating 6-month expectations as a forecast: they measure sentiment about policy more than outcomes — read direction, not level.
- Mixing release times: Empire 08:30, Philadelphia 10:00 — attribute same-day moves correctly (especially Philly Thursdays adjacent to claims).
Related macro data
How it links to other macro data:
- With ISM Manufacturing: the regional surveys are ISM's two-week preview — the Empire+Philly+Dallas combo direction reprices ISM expectations. pmi
- With PPI: multi-district prices-paid is the business-side lead for PPI — its trend leads factory-gate prices. ppi
- With industrial production: survey (direction) versus hard data (volume) — regional surveys weakening while IP holds = transmission in progress. industrial-production
Symbols most sensitive to Regional Fed Surveys
Symbol pages that list this data as a factor to watch:
FAQ
Q Which surveys exist and when do they release?
The tracked four: NY Fed Empire State (~15th, 08:30 ET, the month's earliest), Philadelphia (3rd Thursday, 10:00), Richmond and Dallas (mid-to-late month). Each district monthly, staggered.
Q How do they relate to ISM?
Independent but direction-correlated: districts survey their own manufacturers, ISM is national. The market treats them as ISM previews — Empire first, Philly next — with the combo direction repricing ISM expectations. Levels are not interchangeable.
Q How do I use the zero line?
Positive = more firms reporting improvement (expansion), negative the reverse — semantically like PMI's 50 but distinct: a single crossing of zero is not a trend; consecutive months (or multi-district agreement) are.
Q Why does prices-paid matter?
It is the business-level "pricing pressure" read — the month's earliest micro inflation evidence. Multi-district highs = real cost-push pressure, leading the monthly direction of PPI and CPI. It is the survey set's unique inflation lens.
Q How do I use them in trading?
Three uses: Empire State as the mid-month first manufacturing read (repricing ISM), multi-district prices-paid for inflation marginal calls, and the consistency discipline (two or three districts agreeing to trust). Single-district outliers usually fade within a day or two.
Turn MT5 / MT4 into a Tray Tool
Check quotes, manage positions, and hide in one click.
Download Camovia TrayThis page is educational content about macroeconomic data. It is not investment advice. Macro impacts involve multiple interacting factors — always combine them with your own risk management.